With about 10 days remaining in the regular season, it's a good time to take a look at where all the Big Ten teams stand in terms of NCAA tournament hopes. The guess here is the conference will get seven teams in, but right now only three can feel comfortable.
For purposes of this exercise, we will divide the 11 conference schools into four categories:
1. Mortal locks
2. On the verge, but not in yet
3. Bubble trouble
4. Don't Dream It's Over
Category 1: Mortal locks
1. Michigan State
Overall record: 22-5
Conference record: 12-3
RPI: 6
Strength of schedule: 6
Key wins: Kansas, at Texas, Illinois
Key losses: Northwestern, Penn State, Maryland
JB's take: The Spartans are a legitimate Final Four contender -- if they start defending more consistently. Mental lapses have led to a couple foolish homecourt losses in league play. Still, this is the best team in the Big Ten. Key games remain with Illinois and Purdue, but MSU should wrap up its first conference title since 2001.
2. Illinois
Overall record: 23-6
Conference record: 11-5
RPI: 14
Strength of schedule: 32
Key wins: Missouri, at Purdue, at Ohio State
Key losses: Penn State, at Michigan, at Minnesota
JB's take: The Illini have been lampooned at times for their offensive limitations, but they are the best defensive team in the conference. They rank second nationally behind Washington State for fewest points allowed. Illinois has not lost consecutive games yet this season -- a sure sign of a tournament-worthy team.
3. Purdue
Overall record: 21-7
Conference record: 10-5
RPI: 28
Strength of schedule: 42
Key wins: Michigan State, Boston College, at Wisconsin
Key losses: at Penn State, at Michigan, Illinois
JB's take: The Boilers' Robbie Hummel was the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, but he has started only six of Purdue's 15 conference games due to a stress fracture in his back. You have to give this team credit for staying in the top third of the league while its best player missed significant time with an injury.
Category 2: On the verge, but not in yet
4. Wisconsin
Overall record: 16-10
Conference record: 8-7
RPI: 29
Strength of schedule: 4
Key wins: Illinois, at Virginia Tech, at Michigan
Key losses: at Northwestern, at Iowa, Minnesota
JB's take: This has been the streakiest team in the Big Ten this year. First, they won three in a row. Then, they lost six in a row. Now, they've won five out of six. A strong RPI and SOS combined with a hot finish should impress the selection committee enough to let the Badgers in, provided they continue on their current hot streak.
5. Ohio State
Overall record: 18-8
Conference record: 8-7
RPI: 40
Strength of schedule: 27
Key wins: Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler
Key losses: at Northwestern, West Virginia, at Wisconsin
JB's take: Some non-conference wins over bubble teams from other leagues have put Ohio State in good standing. A win at Purdue Saturday would make the Buckeyes a lock. If not, the final two games are winnable against Iowa and Northwestern. If Ohio State gets to 10 conference wins, it is in.
6. Minnesota
Overall record: 20-8
Conference record: 8-8
RPI: 36
Strength of schedule: 40
Key wins: Louisville, Illinois, at Wisconsin
Key losses: at Northwestern, at Penn State, at Michigan
JB's take: The Gophers haven't won on the road in forever, having dropped their last five away from Williams Arena. The selection committee won't like that, but the final two regular-season games are at home against decent competition (Wisconsin, Michigan). Two wins there will probably be enough to get this team in.
Category 3: Bubble trouble
7. Michigan
Overall record: 17-11
Conference record: 8-8
RPI: 46
Strength of schedule: 11
Key wins: Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Key losses: at Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
JB's take: This team has both quality wins and foolish losses to its credit. The Wolverines finish with road games at Wisconsin and at Minnesota. That's not real favorable. They better win at least one, because they probably won't get in with a sub-.500 conference record.
8. Penn State
Overall record: 19-9
Conference record: 8-7
RPI: 63
Strength of schedule: 84
Key wins: at Michigan State, at Illinois, Purdue
Key losses: Rhode Island, Temple, Wisconsin
JB's take: This is the only team to beat Illinois in Champaign so far this year, and the Nittany Lions also won in East Lansing. That's impressive. That strength of schedule ranking is not. Penn State needs to win its final three regular-season games to get in, the most difficult of which is a rematch with Illinois.
Category 4: Don't Dream It's Over
9. Northwestern
Overall record: 15-11
Conference record: 6-9
RPI: 79
Strength of schedule: 51
Key wins: at Michigan State, Florida State, Minnesota
Key losses: Purdue, Illinois, at Iowa
JB's take: The Wildcats made significant strides over last year's 1-17 conference campaign, but blowing double-digit leads in the second halves of games against Purdue and Illinois robbed them of a chance to add quality wins to their resume. As a result, this team is headed to the NIT.
10. Iowa
Overall record: 14-14
Conference record: 4-11
RPI: 99
Strength of schedule: 46
Key wins: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Key losses: at Drake, at Indiana, at Boston College
JB's take: The Hawkeyes lacked scoring punch coming into the season, and an injury to Cyrus Tate took away their lone presence in the paint. Iowa needs to win two out of its last three games and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament just to get over .500 and qualify for an NIT bid.
11. Indiana
Overall record: 6-21
Conference record: 1-14
RPI: 204
Strength of schedule: 8
Key wins: Iowa
Key losses: Northeastern, Lipscomb, St. Joseph's
JB's take: Hey now, hey now, don't dream it's over!
Here's some Crowded House to take us home:
It's good to know that you think the Gophers are going to do good enough to go to the tournament by winning the next two games.
I would put the Gophers in Bubble Trouble, and I expect the Gophers to go to the NIT.
The loss to Illinois will be the one that does them in. That was a game that was winnable, but the Gophers could not score in the final five minutes of the game, and that's been their problem since conference play.
I have a hard time believing the offense will turn it around against Wisconsin and Michigan, who plays great defense. It's hard for me to think the guys will turn it around because their final two games are at home. If you can't get your offense going, location won't matter.
I expect Michigan to take Minnesota's spot for the tourney.
I think Minnesota is tough at home and subpar on the road. I expect them to protect homecourt the next two games. IMO, 10-8 in this conference is good enough to merit a tournament bid, when coupled with a top 50 RPI and SOS.
It wouldn't hurt the Gophers to win their first game in the Big Ten Tournament to solidify their position.