The agents always say all it takes is "one dumb owner" for a player to get a huge payday in free agency. And nobody is better at finding that one dumb owner than Scott Boras.
Once again, it appears Boras has coerced a major league team to bid against itself for the services of one of his players. How else can you explain the nine-year, $214 million contract the Detroit Tigers just gave Prince Fielder?
We talked last week about Detroit needing another bat after losing designated hitter Victor Martinez to injury, but I never imagined they would make such an overpay for Fielder -- who was the most accomplished hitter left on the market.
But honestly, why was it necessary for the Tigers to give Fielder NINE YEARS? None of the big spenders were in the market for a slugging first baseman. The New York Yankees (Mark Teixeira), Boston (Adrian Gonzalez) and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Albert Pujols) already have their guys at that spot. Texas can already mash and opted to spend its money on pitching. The Cubs are in rebuilding mode and staying away from the big free agents this offseason.
If not Detroit, where was Fielder going to go? Washington? There couldn't have been any sort of bidding war for this guy. No way.
The Tigers didn't need to give Fielder any more than five or six years to sign him. Now, they are stuck with a guy who weighs at least 270 pounds for the next nine years.
Sure, this move makes sense in the short run. Barring something unforeseen, Detroit is going to win the AL Central this year. If their pitching comes around, hell, the Tigers might even compete for a World Series championship.
But what happens next year when Martinez comes back? Fielder, Martinez and Miguel Cabrera can't all DH.
Not to mention, a few years down the line the Tigers might find themselves in a similar position as the White Sox and the Minnesota Twins are in right now.
The Sox are going to stink for the forseeable future because they've got too much money wrapped up in just a handful of players (Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy). Likewise, the Twins have lost some quality talent in free agency the past couple offseasons because they can't afford to pay anyone with the Joe Mauer albatross hanging around their necks.
The day will come when the Tigers have to pay some of the younger players on their roster who are working for cheap now. Will Detroit be able to retain Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, et al., while at the same time paying Fielder all this money? We'll see.
There are some Sox fans who are melting down as a result of this signing. I see no point in such fretting. Nothing has changed for the Sox. They aren't good and won't be good for 2-3 years. While the Sox struggle, Detroit will have its window to win. By the time the Sox return to contention, the time will come for the Tigers to make tough decisions on some of the younger players I listed above, and Fielder and Cabrera will be a few years older. Cabrera's contract is up after 2015. Detroit ace Justin Verlander is under contract through 2014.
I'm thinking the Tigers' window to win just might close around the same time the Sox window opens back up.
Miguel Cabrera says he'll move to third base to accommodate Fielder:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7502736/miguel-cabrera-detroit-tigers-move-third-base-prince-fielder
Think a few people might be bunting on them as corner infielders?
Me thinks the Sox ought to start practicing their bunting skills! ;)
Now that Ozzie is gone, I'm actually kinda hoping we've seen the last of Alexei Ramirez attempting to bunt and popping out to the catcher.
The Sox probably aren't any more out of it than they were at the beginning of 2008, after the Tigers traded for Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and before the Indians dumped CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee for a couple armloads of crap.
Granted, the Sox would need their share of luck while Detroit caught an equal share of misfortune. But scenarios like that play out with some division just about every year.
If the Tigers do have another thing going for them, it's that none of their young complimentary pieces other than Al Avila looks like they'll really be worth all that much unless Detroit does some kind of Brandon Inge Memorial Contract Extension to make sure there's always some bit player who's way overpaid.
Verlander gets a sore elbow, and the Tigers could look like the Brewers teams of 2009-20010 that couldn't make the playoffs with Fielder and Ryan Braun in the middle of the lineup. If Cabrera or Fielder gets hurt making an awkward dive for a line drive, they could look like the 2007 Cardinals, who were lucky to only lose 84 games despite Adam Wainwright stepping in for an injured Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols batting third for them.
It does make me happy at least to see an owner fork over some of the cash he's raking in from fans and extorting from local government bodies. Looks better on the field than in an offshore tax haven.
Chris, what do you think of Fister, Scherzer and Porcello?
If last year was just a career year for Fister and those guys all come in with 4+ ERAs, the Tigers may fall short of the 95- to 100-win projections a lot of people are throwing out there for them.
But even if Detroit encounters a bunch of misfortune -- and that can always happen in baseball -- I don't see the Sox as being well positioned to take advantage, unfortunately.
It just might be that the Sox have too much dead weight, it's true. If they get nothing from Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, it might not matter if Dayan Viciedo, Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham could all take a step or two forward. Which, obviously might be wishful thinking itself.
Scherzer is the guy I like best over there. When he's on, he's great. When he's not, he gets jacked around. He could be a top-15 starter in the AL, or he could be frustrating like Edwin Jackson with more strikeouts and a HR problem during a bad year.
Fister is miscast on a bad defensive team. He'll at least keep the ball in the park, but I think a No. 3 is his upside, and he could look a lot worse with awful defenders in all four corner spots.
I think Porcello was rushed and hasn't really improved since debuting in Detroit a few years ago. For something of a groundball pitcher, he gives up a few home runs. In general he's hitable. He'll have to change that if he's going to take the ball out of his defense's hands and bring down his runs allowed.
I'm really surprised the Tigers haven't acquired some help here. And maybe they still will do that with Edwin Jackson still out there and Matt Garza available. Even a hope-THIS-GUY-doesn't-end-up-as-our-second-best-pitcher guy like Jeff Francis, or Kevin Milwood before he went to the Mariners, would be some OK depth. Because I just don't think all three of those guys behind Verlander right now are going to hold up all season.
If I were Dave Dombrowski, I think I'd pull the trigger and send some prospects to the Cubs for Matt Garza. I think Garza would be better than all the starters on that team besides Verlander. Scherzer and Fister would look at lot better as middle- or back-of-the-rotation guys.
Detroit is basically "All In" at this point. Might as well try to get the arm they need to push past Texas in the American League.
I have to think the Cubs would do that deal, too. Epstein and Hoyer know they aren't going anywhere this year or next year. They'd probably be happy to add Jacob Turner to their farm system (if not their rotation), especially if Garza gets the $12.5 million he's seeking in arbitration.
I'm definitely with you, Chris
Detroit seems like they are in the "All-in" mode, similar to last year's White Sox (with better players). But I'll ask you two the question I had in my mind: Didn't I read something recently that there was a need to trim payroll? I don't know how Prince improves the Detroit economy but I'd be a little worried around the finances of the area and its outcome on the bottom dollar at the gates/advertising/media. I don't see any other team from the Central really competing with Detroit too much. Although, I do like the youth movement in K.C. a little bit (but they are the Royals).