White Sox right-hander Phil Humber's perfect game didn't even last one batter Thursday night. Junior Lake of the Tennessee Smokies doubled to leadoff the game and eventual scored, but things went exceedingly well for Humber from that point forward in his rehab start at Double-A Birmingham.
Humber fired six innings and allowed just the one run on two hits in the Barons' 4-1 victory. He struck out five, walked none and threw 48 of his 78 pitches for strikes. Of course, the key with any rehab start is how the pitcher feels the day after throwing. But based upon the statline, it seems Humber is ready to return to the big leagues after missing the last month with a flexor strain in his pitching elbow.
If everything remains on track, Humber will return to the White Sox rotation next Tuesday in Boston. That means Dylan Axelrod will move out of the rotation and back into a long relief role. Given Axelrod's horrendous performance last Sunday against Toronto, that's a welcome move.
To be fair to Axelrod, he was asked to start on short rest so the Sox could re-set their rotation. Though seven runs in three innings of a game that otherwise would have been winnable isn't a very gutsy performance.
Humber throwing strikes is hopefully what we'll see when he's back up here. His walks and home runs allowed have been what have killed him this year. He'll be serviceable if he can fix one of those problems.
I was pissed at Axelrod for not throwing strikes against Toronto. I've never been a big fan of his to begin with. Saw him pitch in person against the Brewers in June and he almost made me throw up. I still can't believe he held the Yankees down that one game in the Bronx.
He shouldn't be anything more than the 12th man on the staff, long reliever, occasional spot starter, etc.
As a right-hander with a fastball that barely tickles 90, no superlative secondary pitch or any other distinguishing quality, Axelrod is what he is: a piece of organizational filler who can spot you a start or mop up in relief.
It's easy to forget because the White Sox have made sure to stock up on pitching depth -- especially capable starters -- for most of the last decade. It's been a long time since the fifth starter spot has been a complete garbage pile. Probably back as far as the 2004 days of Felix Diaz, Arnie Munoz and Jason Grilli.
A few injuries have just about gotten us back to that point. So hopefully Humber is fully healthy and ready to go.
If the injury problems linger, does Pedro Hernandez get a shot? He's tearing up Double-A. Or maybe Charlie Leesman?
And don't forget Josh Stewart and Dan Wright on your list of 2004 dreck.
I think if Humber goes down again and Danks isn't back, the Sox will probably make a trade if they're still leading the division.
Leesman is likely to get hammered in the majors. He walks a lot of guys, and I don't think he can avoid giving up home runs the way he has in the minors. That's been the only think keeping his numbers superficially decent.
Hernandez has sort of the same problems going for him. He's not overpowering guys despite the low ERA. He's been hittable, those hits just haven't been leaving the ballpark. He does walk fewer guys than Leesman.
If he weren't hurt, too, I think I'd rather see Simon Castro.
Realistically, Duente Heath is probably next in line from within the organization if Axelrod's audition as a starter is over.
And Heath is only getting stretched out as a starter at Charlotte now, and has yet to go more than 4 innings in a start. So I think Plan C, if A is get healthy and B is Axelrod, is to trade for a guy.
Trading will be tough at the deadline this year. There are a lot more buyers than sellers. With 11 teams in the American League at .500 or better, just about everybody believes they have at least a puncher's chance.
Getting back to Leesman, Mark Gonzalez at the Trib was asked about him in one of his mailbag columns when Humber first went down. Gonzo said something about the Sox not wanting to start Leesman's arbitration clock. That was a real head-scratcher for me. Usually you don't worry about the arbitration clock unless you are talking about a top prospect. Leesman is not that.
Stewart, Wright, John Rauch, Corwin Malone, Matt Ginter, Kris Honel. What an amazing group of pitching prospects. Lots of guys Phil Rogers probably loved, but nobody who would become a good major league starter.
To give credit to Rogers, I haven't seen him write about how the Sox made a mistake by trading John Ely in at least a few months. Ely's having a nice season, too. He's almost brought his career ERA at AAA down to about 5.00. Another good half and he'll get there.
Leesman is already 25, and if he's figured out something that's going to make him a good major league pitcher for six or seven years, the Sox are the only ones who see that yet.
You know, when Dan Hudson went down a couple weeks ago the first thing I thought was, "At least I won't have to read anymore Phil Rogers columns about what a mistake Kenny made dealing that guy away."
Nothing against Hudson. I actually liked him when he was with the Sox organization, and he's a far superior talent to Ely — who always has been and always will be a complete stiff. Thing is, Rogers writes the same damn column over and over again, just crying a river about all this "young talent" Williams has traded away. It's so redundant, so tiresome.
His other favorite is noting both Chicago teams made a horrible mistake by not noticing Curtis Granderson "right in their own backyard." OK, Phil, we get it. Tell us again what "a polished workhorse" Brandon McCarthy was when the Sox traded him to Texas after the 2006 season.
Speaking of fringy players, somebody was posting the other day about how the Sox should send Tyler Flowers down to "get more at-bats." Uh, ok. Makes you wonder if people know Flowers is 26 now and probably doesn't qualify as a prospect anymore. It's my feeling he's nothing more than a backup catcher, which is precisely the role he has right now. I'd leave him right where he is.
There was another person who thought the Sox were doing Jordan Danks a disservice by calling him up and using him as a fourth outfielder. To me, fourth outfielder is his ceiling. I don't have a problem with the Sox placing the 26-year-old Danks in that exact role.
I didn't like the Hudson trade either, especially when they threw in another promising arm, and then instead of getting something good back when they traded Edwin Jackson, used him as the sweetener to get Toronto to take the stupid Mark Teahen contract.
Still, the Sox didn't like Hudson's mechanics very well, and didn't think his stuff would play well in their ballpark. Especially as a mid-summer call-up for a team trying to get back in a division race.
Prospects have been a fetish for baseball writers, both of the tradition bent and sabermetric types. In their view, to hoard them is to ensure your future as a contender, to part with them a sign of how poorly your organization is run.
Still, I can't think of too many teams the last couple decades that built a tremendous farm system, then saw all of their prospects develop all at the same time. Far more often, you end up with holes or lopsided development.
The Sox in the late 90s are a good example. They brought up Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, traded for a young Paul Konerko after having installed Ray Durham at second base and Frank Thomas still in middle of his Hall-of-Fame career. Then all of their great pitching prospects went bust. Of the guys who didn't, there was Mark Buehrle, who was never highly regarded as a prospect, and Jon Garland, who despite a nice career never really lived up to his prospect stature.
The Sox, despite trading away so many guys, have yet to really get burned.
Hudson had a nice year for Arizona, then got hurt. Gio Gonzalez, who they traded twice, is having a pretty good career. Kip Wells had a couple good years in Pittsburgh. Clayton Richard had a superficially good year in San Diego before getting hurt. And Brandon McCarthy is getting things together -- though not for the team that traded John Danks for him.
Maybe I'm forgetting something. It doesn't look like the Sox got screwed in any of those deals, except Jackson and Nick Swisher-for-Gonzalez-plus trade. And with Swisher, just like with Jackson, the problem wasn't the player they gave up talent to acquire. It was the crap they got back when the turned around to dump that guy.
Whatever. It hasn't kept the Sox from being competitive, and even with only one playoff appearance since winning a World Series, this team has been more entertaining than most other teams.
Regarding Jor Danks and Flowers, yep. They are what they are at this point.
Lets not forget, that two years ago when these guys were prospects, fourth outfielder and backup catch might have seemed too optimistic while both of them were getting overpowered by minor-league pitchers.
Flowers does have big-time power. That's always tantalizing. That's why this organization was in love with Joe Borchard.
Like Borchard, though, I'm not sure Flowers is going to make enough contact to be an elite major league hitter. He could still be a good hitting catcher, but he's also has 800 plate appearances at AAA. He probably isn't going to learn anything else there that he's not seeing once a week here.
Danks has more than 1,200 AAA PAs.
Baseball teams, first and foremost, are supposed to be in the business of winning games, not developing guys or helping them reach the tippy top of their potential.
You raise an interesting point about lopsided development. The writers tend to hold up Tampa Bay as the model franchise these days, but they have significant holes as well. There's no question the Rays have developed a number of good pitchers, and they deserve credit for that. Those arms have gotten them to the playoffs three times and have kept them competitive in baseball's toughest division.
That said, who do you like among the hitters Tampa Bay has developed? Longoria is hurt right now, although he's obviously a terrific player when healthy. Aside from him, is there any other position player on that roster you'd take? I can't find one. Not even one. The inability to generate offense has cost the Rays in the playoffs more than once. They have the pitching necessary to win a World Series. They don't have anywhere close to enough hitting.
Longoria is great when he's healthy. Ben Zobrist was a steal out of the Astros organization. B.J. Upton has had his moments. Of course in the past tense Carl Crawford was good, but not worth the contract the Red Sox gave him.
I actually think Desmond Jennings can be a useful player, but him, and maybe Reid Brignac, point out another problem with going strictly with the grow-em-on-the-farm plan: those guys might grow into useful players, but obviously both are struggling to establish themselves.
Lots guys just don't hit the ground running in the big leagues. A lot of times they end up needing a season or two. Unless you've got a handful of Evan Longorias hanging around, or are good enough all-around to survive some on-the-job training that can get ugly, you've got to acquire talent some other way. That means trading some of your prospects, finding talent out of other organizations, and bringing in free agents that fill needs.
Holding the Rays up as an example of strictly going with young homegrown guys isn't accurate, anyway.
Some guys who have been big contributors for them in the past, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza, were actually landed there when the Rays gave up Delmon Young, who was a pretty highly regarded prospect himself. Carlos Pena was a retread who had been a top prospect but didn't put it together until he got playing time in Tampa. Akinori Iwamura was an international free agent.
They've even tried spending money to fill holes, though that's less noteworthy because when they've done that, they've done it poorly with guys like Pat Burrell and Troy Percival.
Having a good farm system just isn't the only way to build a contender, and not the only thing you have to do to be one every year. It sure helps, but the only thing that puts you in the hunt every year: Spending huge bucks like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox and Phillies. And for sure the Red Sox and Phillies are showing that even that's not a slam-dunk.