By Andy Rohr
Staff Writer
Each draw contains a slew of top contenders, dark horses and looming disappointments. Here are my picks in the men's draw at the U.S. Open.
Top 4 Contenders
Novak Djokovic (3rd seed) - After winning the Australian Open in grand style back in January, "The Djoker" has had a relatively quiet year. He's been blanked this summer and after falling to Nadal in the gold-medal match in Beijing, has lost to the Spaniard four times since May. The up-and-coming Andy Murray has also beaten him twice leading up the Open. So why am I picking Djokovic? Because Nadal and Murray reside on the other side of the bracket and neither possesses a successful run in New York like Djokovic had last year, when he lost to Federer in the final. That, and Djokovic hasn't lost a five-setter on hard courts this season.
Rafael Nadal (1st seed) - "Six titles, two majors and a gold medal do make for a great year, no?" Nadal didn't actually say that but he certainly could have. The man has been rolling along and after his triumph at the Olympics, many are picking Rafa to take another title. But not me. Nadal has undoubtedly improved his hard-court game the last couple of years but has not yet put up a lengthy run at the Open (his best a quarterfinal appearance in 2006) and often succumbs to injury on the unforgiving hard courts due to the ridiculous pace that he plays at. A quarterfinal match with James Blake could be something special.
Roger Federer (2nd seed) - Things have definitely changed when Federer can only clock in as the third-best contender at the Open. The 12-time grand slam champion has only totaled two titles this year and has been off his usual game (you know, of flat out destroying people) to getting beaten 11 times on the ATP circuit this season. One could argue that Federer has lost to the eventual champion at all three Grand Slams but then again, he hasn't had a win over a top-tier player since he beat Blake at the Australian quarterfinals. A semifinal with Djokovic could await.
Andy Murray (6th seed) - Aside from his disastrous first-round Olympic loss, Murray has been at the top of his game this summer. Murray captured his first-career Master Series title in Cincinnati earlier this month has finally displayed that tenacity that had so many tennis insiders excited the last couple of years. A difficult round-of-16 match-up with 10th-seeded Stanislas Wawrinka probably awaits but Murray is still the favorite to make the semis considering the slump that the fourth-seeded David Ferrer has been in. If Nadal is waiting for him in the semifinals, it's probably curtains for young Andy. He's 0-3 against Rafa since Wimbledon.
Dark Horses
Juan Martin Del Potro (17th seed) - Everybody's pick as the tournament dark horse after reeling off 19 straight wins and capturing four titles this season. Aside from wins over Andy Roddick and Richard Gasquet however, there isn't a lot of to hoot and holler about. A third-round match-up with fellow up-and-comer Gilles Simon awaits.
James Blake (9th seed) - After having his trip to Beijing end in a no-medal disappointment, Blake will look to bounce back at an event where he's reached the semis to other times. Although Blake has struggled in long matches and against his fellow ranked opponents, I still see him making the quarters to take on Nadal. Then, who knows?
Others to watch: Stanislas Wawrinka, Mardy Fish, Viktor Troicki, Radek Stepanek, Marin Cilic
Looming Disappointments
David Ferrer (4th seed) - A semifinalist a year ago, Ferrer closed out 2007 on fire. 2008 has been another story.
David Nalbandian (7th seed) - The one-time "best player without a Grand Slam title" has come on hard times. It's probably all downhill from here.
Andy Roddick (8th seed) - Maybe I can work the reverse jinx here. Like many American fans, I've been waiting and waiting for Roddick to make another run at the top. While that time has certainly passed, there's still time left for Roddick to make a run at another Grand Slam title. But it is running out and his recent form and shoulder injury are bad signs.
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