No matter which side of the aisle you're on, or if you're on the left, no matter which presidential candidate you support, some pretty interesting numbers came out following Tuesday's primary: According to CNN:
Nearly half of Democratic voters in Kentucky polled Tuesday said they would either vote for Republican Sen. John McCain or not vote at all in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee. Among 1,278 people polled, 33 percent said they would pick McCain over Obama, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all.By comparison, 76 percent said they would choose Clinton over McCain, with only 17 percent supporting the Republican and 6 percent not voting.
It's the second time in as many weeks that the Illinois senator has seen such troubling numbers. In last week's West Virginia primary, exit polls showed 27 percent of voters saying they'd choose McCain over Obama and 17 percent saying they wouldn't vote.
If you're a Democrat, either candidate is exciting yet flawed. Hillary would represent the first female candidate but comes from a family entrenched in politics. Obama would be the first black candidate and is convincing record numbers of previously disenfranchised voters to enter the process. But, he's a relative newbie to the national political scene and his "Change" slogan seems great in theory, but somewhat lacking in specifics or action.
There are many who hate Hillary and anything Clinton with a passion. But, there are many who are scared of Obama, or more naive yet, wouldn't vote for the man because of the color of his skin.
Consider this, a Daily Show video where one West Virginia voter says of Obama, "He is of another race, and I guess I am a little scared of his race, because we have so much conflict with 'em." Another voter naively points out Obama's middle name and exclaims: "I've had enough of Hussein."
If Obama is chosen as the Democratic candidate, can he reach this naive audience before November? Or would the Democrats be sending themselves on a suicide mission?
Either way, it's a tough call: Obama leads the delegate count, and is slightly ahead in the popular vote. (Great break down can be found here.)
But Clinton can count victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania, typically swing states that the Democrats MUST win in November to win back the White House. (Not to mention Clinton's victories in Michigan and Florida, two other key swing states, but I'll leave that one alone for now. Check out my previous post for more.)
Again, back to the CNN numbers. That's what's most telling, in my opinion. The types of voters who said they would either support McCain or stay home are the types that typically turn out on election day. If Obama is going to take this all the way, he's gotta be ensured that blacks and college students will turn out for him in November. But, historically, these groups don't show up in the same numbers that do the white middle class (the ones who the recent poll numbers suggest would have a problem voting for either Obama or a black candidate or both.)
In other words, does Obama have staying power, or will the media spotlight fade, and the electorate that propelled him in the primary sit back on their laurels, happy they've helped the first viable black candidate find his way to the final ballot? Or can they seal the deal, ensuring him a victory in November as well? That's the key question as Democrats head to their convention.
Patrick Ferrell, is a staff reporter for The Herald News in Joliet. and the Sun Times News Group. Patrick covers education and politics. When he’s not ranting about something, Patrick can usually be found watching a race or careening down a ski slope. He resides in Will County with his wife, Laura, and the couple’s Portuguese water dog, Oscar, and bloodhound named Duke.
Obama is this year's Howard Dean, albeit better financed. Obama's supporters thus far have proven to be voters that traditonally have a short attention span (again see Howard Dean's 2004 campaign). Obama has yet to prove he can win the white vote, the Latino vote, the women's vote, etc. The bottom line is people have been voting based upon race and are going to continue to do so and to ignore that fact will be a tragic mistake for the Democratic Party (now chaired by Howard Dean). I don't agree with voting based on sex or gender, but the exit polls are fairly clear when it comes down to voting trends.
I will be very surprised if the Democrat voters in Michigan and Florida don't backlash against their party for deciding their votes don't count in the primary. I can't imagine why anyone who goes to the time and trouble to vote, (so few citizens do) would swallow such a blow from their party. I would feel it was time to switch sides!
Obama can talk. That's it, nothing else. Hillary, on the other hand, has had to deal with politicians (and her husband) lying and cheating for several years now and has emerged victorious. She has the experience and expertise needed to be President of the Great United States of America! If the Democrats plan on taking back the White House, they better put Hillary on the ballot, otherwise this Yellowdog Democrat plans on voting for McCain!