At The Office, before the 2008 season began, we guessed the number of victories each program would finish with, and how the DuPage Valley Conference would play out. Those projections fall comfortably on the laughable-to-accurate range, though this weekend could change that assessment.
Let's start with "What Went Wrong":
Team: Neuqua Valley (4-5)
Staffer: Paul LaTour
Prediction: 6 wins
The quote: "(A) return to the playoffs should be in the offing for Neuqua."
The bright side: LaTour now has a new nugget for historical reference, such as: "The last time the Wildcats were eliminated from playoff consideration in a presidential election year after a game that ended with a combined final score less than the integer 21 was 2008."
Team: Benet (2-7)
Staffer: Sean Fuchs
Prediction: 5 wins
The quote: "With five teams on the schedule that won eight or more games last year, including Class 6A state champion Joliet Catholic, the Redwings will do well to get those five victories."
The bright side: Fuchs no longer covers Benet and has taken his demented sense of humor to Bolingbrook. Here's how he led a recent column on The Brook: "Going undefeated in the regular season is a great accomplishment. It also means nothing."
And continue with "What Might Go Wrong":
Team: Waubonsie (6-3)
Staffer: Dustin Harris
Prediction: 7 wins
The quote: "If Waubonsie can emerge from the first four weeks with a winning record, the rest of its schedule is entirely winnable."
The breakdown: This was a solid assessment from the self-proclaimed "Sports Nerd," before he started listening to police scanners on the overnight Web editing shift. Waubonsie started out 0-3 yet still made the playoffs, though it would take a signature upset for the No. 14 Warriors to beat No. 3 Lincoln-Way East (8-1) and notch a seventh win.
Team: Naperville Central (6-3)
Staffer: Patrick Mooney
Prediction: 6 wins
The quote: "Central figures to be in the playoff hunt."
The breakdown: Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Up next for No. 11 Central is No. 6 Mount Carmel (7-2), which has won 10 state titles in its storied history. Now would be a good time to gloat - if only the DVC picks (see below) weren't so completely off the mark.
Team: Naperville North (9-0)
Staffer: Brad Engel
Prediction: 9 wins
The quote: "Look for North to hit full stride by playoff time."
The breakdown: Mixed results from Engel, who no longer spends his days as a grunt reporter and instead lords over a digital empire, speaking only to those who fetch his coffee. The Huskies may very well hit full stride within the 8A bracket, but to do so they'll blow past nine wins. To be fair, it's doubtful anyone had pegged North as a 9-0 team heading into Week 10.
The DVC: A Big Bowl of Wrong
Below is what Engel and I wrote preseason. The thinking was that a Glenbard North (6-3) or a Wheaton North (5-4) would steal a game from one of the DVC superpowers. For its part, Glenbard North lost to North and Wheaton Warrenville South by a combined nine points. For the record, North went 7-0 in conference - though we had to wait until Week 9 at Harshbarger-Welzel Field for the winner to clinch - and only five DVC teams made the playoffs. Across the next several weeks we'll see if any are good enough to go on a five-game winning streak. And the revised prediction is that North running back Nick Mlady will be the DVC's offensive player of the year.
The previous 10 DVC champs have swept through the conference undefeated. The last time a team didn't was 1997, when Naperville Central, North and WW South all finished 6-1. That streak will end this year, though you should expect a similar gridlock atop the standings.
The guess here: No one will finish 7-0. The winner won't be decided until week nine, when WW South travels to North. At least five teams - if not six - will qualify for the state playoffs, but none will win a state title. And in a league deep with talented running backs, a quarterback will emerge as the player of the year - Glenbard North's Evan Watkins.
What I have found is that predicting how many games a team will win without ever seeing that team play is a difficult if not impossible thing to do. I thought for sure that watching the first day of practice and bonding with the head coach for 15 minutes would give me all the required insight.