Neuqua Valley graduate Chris Derrick missed the Nike Outdoor Nationals just as he missed the IHSA Class AA state finals because of illness, but Dyestat.com news editor Steve Underwood posted an article that wonders what would have happened if the Stanford-bound Derrick did run at NON.
Underwood posits the scenario of Derrick facing California star German Fernandez and Indiana standout Mike Fout in the 5,000 meters.
The easy thing to wonder is what if Derrick had made it to the line for the NON 2-mile vs. Fernandez, instead of watching from the sidelines as DyeStat's newest reporter? Could a healthy Derrick - with that 13:55 5k at Arcadia and what seemed like a routine 8:48 3200 not long after - have stayed with German in Greensboro?
That would have been great, but let's face it, Fernandez brought something to the table that Derrick - even at his best - probably lacked: that really good miler's speed. Running 8:34 without a sub-4:10 PR seems like a tall order, even though Derrick surely had 4:08 or better talent this year.
So the more interesting fantasy meeting could have been over 5k - if you can imagine both of them having either raced that distance at NON or Arcadia. When you think of that distance, you think back to XC, where Derrick had his string of XC races that included the historic win at his state meet, basically topping Craig Virgin's mark (slightly different course). Fernandez, meanwhile, had his own mind-boggling state meet performance, blowing past the Marc Davis mark in Fresno. Later, he won the 8k USATF Juniors race.
Of course, it was Fout who won it all in San Diego, beating both of them. But unfortunately he missed nearly the entire track season with injury.
Imagining such a race is hard; first, a healthy Fout would have needed to have gotten his 3200 PR deep into the 8:40s to be competitive in such a race. Derrick would have had the health and probably best fitness on his side if such a matchup had happened at Arcadia. If you imagine it having happened at NON, you could see the pace in the 66-68 range, with Fermandez perhaps just a little more tentative, with it being his first 5k track race. Derrick did have the great kick at Arcadia and Fernandez has faced few kicking situations. On the other hand, it's highly possible Fernandez could have ramped up the pace and held it from further out; it's not hard to think of him breaking 13:50 or 13:45 ...
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