Swami has peered deeply into the crystal sphere and found that at least one candidate for president resembles an Old Illinois Political Warrior too much to ignore. See who’s not going to be president of the United States….
After watching and listening to Barack Obama for the past few months, Swami has decided he knows at least candidate who is not goning to win.
It’s Barack Obama.
And here’s why, Bunky.
There is a long tradition in American politics for the sage, thoughtful but utterly unelectable national candidate. The one who has good ideas, but can’t quite pull the trigger to make you want to vote him into the Oval Office. He says all the right things, but still leaves some ingredient missing from the magic potion.
The last candidate who dominated ideas and seemed like a genuinely swell fellow was Adlai Stevenson, a moderate reformer who, in something of a precursive role to Obama, was never feisty enough for blue-collar voters but captured the admiration of the wealthy end of the Democratic Party.
So, the people who like Obama will tend to like him very much. But they never constitute a majority. Likewise, Stevenson got whacked twice by Dwight Eisenhower even though Stevenson was genuinely admired.
Though we are a long way to the primaries, the national polls reveal trends which are only deepening. If Hillary Cl,inton does not win, the fissure in her Joan of Arc chestplate will have to develop soon.
For example, the Los Angles Times-Bloomberg poll of this week, shows Clinton leading Obama 48 percent to 17 percent. That gap has grown 15 percent since that poll last tested the water in June. Support for Obama has fallen 5 percent.
As a caveat, remember that nominations aren’t won on a national vote. They are slugged out state by state, where Clinton seems to have an even firmer grip on the helm.
Even the infamous “high negatives” that supposedly will defeat Clinton are less compelling than they seem. She was viewed unfavorably by 44% of respondents. But among all registered voters, the poll found that Clinton would win head-to-head matchups against each of the four leading Republican candidates. For example, Clinton tops Rudy Giuliani 47 percent to 41 percent.
Even though Clinton seems easily the leader now, recent history indicates that even presidential landslides don’t add to up to more 5 percent point swings.
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